试论未来极端气候事件发展趋势的不确定性     

李志忠  刘秀铭  陈秀玲  姜修洋  雷国良  朱芸  靳建辉  胡凡根 《福建地理》2012,(1):12-20

极端气候事件是在一定时间尺度上发生的不同于气候系统平均状态的气候突变.早第三纪的最热事件（PETM）,第四纪中国黄土高原古土壤S4、S5记录的暖湿事件,砂黄土L9、L15记录的干冷事件等都是在轨道时间尺度上发生的极端气候事件.末次冰消期的YD冷事件、全新世9次冷事件是在千—百年尺度上发生的极端气候事件.这些极端气候事件出现于地球气候系统不同的冷暖背景下,它们的成因机制和表现形式有很多不确定性.20世纪以来发生的干旱、洪水、飓风、雪灾、沙尘暴等极端气候事件,无法用持续增加的温室气体的变化来解释.关于极端气候事件发生频率和强度随＂全球变暖＂而增加的结论也存在一定程度的不确定性.因此,简单地将现代极端气候事件统统归因于＂气候变暖＂既不科学也不合理.深入研究各个时间尺度上发生的极端气候事件的波动性、周期性和不确定性特征,有助于科学预测未来气候变化背景下极端气候事件的发展趋势.  相似文献   

Possible Impact of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation on Extreme Hot Events in China          下载免费PDF全文

SUN Jian-Qi 《大气和海洋科学快报》2012,5(3):231-234

This paper reveals that the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) is closely related to the extreme hot event (EHE) variability in China during the period of 1979 2009, with a positive-phase (negative-phase) SNAO corresponding to less (more) EHEs in northern China. The summer circulation anomalies associated with the SNAO give further confirmation of the above relationship. In a positive-phase (negative-phase) SNAO year, there is an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over central East Asia, which can increase (decrease) the total cloud cover over this region. Such changes of the total cloud cover can then decrease (increase) the solar radiation reaching the surface, which is consequently unfavorable (favorable) to the formation of EHEs over northern China.  相似文献   

Geochronology and geochemistry of Permo-Triassic sandstones in eastern Jilin Province (NE China): Implications for final closure of the Paleo-Asian Ocean     

《地学前缘(英文版)》2019,10(2):683-704

In the eastern part of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt (CAOB) in northeastern (NE) China, scattered outcrops of molasse deposits mark the ending of an orogeny and are crucial for understanding the evolution of the Paleo-Asian Ocean (PAO). However, the timing of tectonic events and the relationships among these strata remain controversial. To better constrain these geologic events, a comprehensive study of the detrital zircon U-Pb geochronology and geochemistry of the sandstones of the Kaishantun (KST) Formation and Kedao (KD) Group in eastern Jilin Province, NE China, was conducted. The KST Formation is traditionally considered a molasse deposit. The sandstones display low CIA, PIA and high ICV values and low Th/U and Rb/Sr ratios, which suggest that the rocks were derived from an immature intermediate-felsic igneous source and experienced a simple sedimentary recycling history with relatively weak chemical weathering. LA-ICP-MS U-Pb dating of detrital zircons from two samples of the KST Formation yields ages of 748–252 Ma, suggesting that the KST Formation was deposited between 254.5 Ma and 252 Ma in Late Permian. The zircons were mainly derived from the continental northern part of the North China Craton (NCC). In contrast, the U-Pb dating of detrital zircons from five samples of the KD Group yields ages of 2611–230 Ma, suggesting that the KD samples were deposited in the Early to Middle Triassic (ca. 248–233 Ma). The detrital zircon ages for the KD samples can be divided into groups with peaks at 2.5 Ga, 1.8 Ga, 800–1000 Ma, 500 Ma and 440–360 Ma, which suggest that the samples were derived from bidirectional provenances in the Jiamusi-Khanka Block and the NCC. These new data, combined with previously published results, suggest that at least three orogenic events occurred in central-eastern Jilin Province during the Early Permian (270–262 Ma), Early Triassic (254–248 Ma) and Middle–Late Triassic (242–227 Ma). The final closure of the PAO occurred during 242–227 Ma in the Middle–Late Triassic along the Changchun-Yanji suture zone. The detrital zircon geochronological data clearly record plate convergence and the scissor-like closure of the PAO in the eastern CAOB.  相似文献   

2007 Mutual events within the binary system of (22) Kalliope     

P. Descamps  F. Marchis  J. Berthier  F. Vachier 《Planetary and Space Science》2008,56(14):1851-1856

In 2007, the asteroid Kalliope will reach one of its annual equinoxes. As a consequence, its small satellite Linus orbiting in the equatorial plane will undergo a season of mutual eclipses and occultations very similar to the one that the Galilean satellites undergo every 6 years. This paper is aimed at preparing a campaign of observations of these mutual events occurring from February to May 2007. This opportunity occurs only under favorable geometric conditions when the Sun and/or the Earth are close to the orbital plane of the system. This is the first international campaign devoted to the observation of photometric events within an asynchronous asteroidal binary system. We took advantage of a reliable orbit solution of Linus to predict a series of 24 mutual eclipses and 12 mutual occultations observable in the spring of 2007. Thanks to the brightness of Kalliope (m_v?11), these observations are easy to perform even with a small telescope. Anomalous attenuation events could be observed lasting for about 1-3 h with amplitude up to 0.09 mag. The attenuations are of two distinct types that can clearly be identified as primary and secondary eclipses similar to those that have been previously observed in other minor planet binary systems [Pravec, P., Scheirich, P., Kusnirák, P., Sarounová, L., Mottola, S., Hahn, G., Brown, P., Esquerdo, G., Kaiser, N., Krzeminski, Z., Pray, D.P., Warner, B.D., Harris, A.W., Nolan, M.C., Howell, E.S., Benner, L.A.M., Margot, J.-L., Galád, A., Holliday, W., Hicks, M.D., Krugly, Yu.N., Tholen, D., Whiteley, R., Marchis, F., Degraff, D.R., Grauer, A., Larson, S., Velichko, F.P., Cooney, W.R., Stephens, R., Zhu, J., Kirsch, K., Dyvig, R., Snyder, L., Reddy, V., Moore, S., Gajdos, S., Világi, J., Masi, G., Higgins, D., Funkhouser, G., Knight, B., Slivan, S., Behrend, R., Grenon, M., Burki, G., Roy, R., Demeautis, C., Matter, D., Waelchli, N., Revaz, Y., Klotz, A., Rieugné, M., Thierry, P., Cotrez, V., Brunetto, L., Kober, G., 2006. Photometric survey of binary near-Earth asteroids. Icarus 181, 63-93]. With these favorable circumstances, such photometric observations will provide us tight constraints regarding physical properties of Linus such as the size, shape and synodic spin period.  相似文献   

开合旋构造体系及其形成机制探讨:兼论板块构造的动力学机制     

杨巍然  姜春发  张抗  郭铁鹰 《地学前缘》2019,26(1):337-355

开合构造总体上可以表述为:地球膨胀为开,收缩为合;垂向上地球物质离心(地心)运动为开,向心运动为合;水平方向上地球物质相背运动为开,相向运动为合。从驱动机制角度,我们把以热力(热能)为主体驱动的上浮物质运动定义为开;将重力(势能)为主体驱动的下沉物质运动定义为合。因此,开与合是一个高度综合的概念,具有广阔的内涵,开合运动是联系一切地质运动和地质科学的纽带。开合运动具有同步统一性,即垂向的开在水平方向也表现为开;垂向开得强烈,水平方向同样开得强烈,反之亦然。地球刚形成时诸多开合构造是无序的,地球的旋转运动统领地球上所有物质、能量、运动和大大小小的各种开合构造于旋转运动中,并将它们调剂到有序状态。简言之开合构造体系是开合旋运动长期作用下形成的不同时期、不同层次、不同级别的开合旋回组成的动态平衡构造体系。本文总结了地球开合旋构造体系物质组成、结构构造特征和规律,建立了开合旋复杂构造体系简要模型。提出平衡体系的形成机制是开合旋运动遵循地球重力均衡准则、最小内能原理(结晶化)、几何淘汰生长(垂直地心生长)和物质均匀化四条自然演化规律,其中重力均衡准则是主导的。由于地质事件(构造运动)在破坏开合旋平衡体系的同时,经常直接或间接向体系内输入新能量,往往使新的旋回比老旋回的结构构造更符合地质演化的自然规律,于是使地球显得更强大而有活力。这一次又一次的地质事件(构造运动)是开合旋构造体系螺旋式向前发展的动因。本文最后用开合构造观点探讨了地球的形成和演化,分析了板块构造运动的动力学过程。  相似文献   

新元古代重大地质事件及其与生物演化的耦合关系   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

叶云涛  王华建  翟俪娜  周文喜  王晓梅  张水昌  吴朝东 《沉积学报》2017,35(2):203-216

新元古代的地球表层系统经历了超大陆裂解与重组、大规模冰期、古海洋氧化、埃迪卡拉生物群辐射与灭绝、后生动物兴起等一系列重大变革,这些地质事件与生物演化在时空上的耦合关系长期受多学科交叉研究领域的广泛关注。Rodinia超大陆的裂解伴随有超级地幔柱活动、古地磁真极移等复杂响应,裂解过程影响了大气圈和水圈中氧气和二氧化碳的循环,并可能直接导致了新元古代极端的气候条件。构造格局的变动对生物的影响主要体现在物质来源和生存环境的改变上,强上升洋流和强地表径流区域的富营养化促使生物大量繁盛。“雪球地球”期间巨大的选择压力为生物的多样化演变提供了可能,而其后冰川的快速消融则促进了生产力的爆发式增长及多种沉积矿产的形成。与此同时,大气-海洋氧气含量的增加和海水化学结构的改变使得多项元素及同位素指标发生了地质历史上最大幅度的波动,这种特殊的地质背景可能最终对生物演化产生了极为深刻的影响。  相似文献   

树轮长年表在全球变化相关领域中的应用研究进展-以14C曲线校正、环境考古和地质灾害事件定年为例     

杨桃 《中国沙漠》2017,37(2):247-253

近几十年树轮年代学得到了迅速发展,现已成功建立了大量长度逾千年的树轮长年表。本文评述树轮长年表在全球变化相关研究领域中的应用。树轮长年表可为¹⁴C定年提供校准曲线,从而将样本的¹⁴C年龄转化为日历年龄,提高了¹⁴C测年的精度;也可为环境考古如古木建筑及墓葬等提供定年服务,确定古木构建筑的建造年代;树轮长年表在地质灾害事件定年方面也发挥了重要作用。然而,树轮长年表在上述研究领域的应用也存在不足,最新的国际¹⁴C会议公布的¹⁴C校正曲线中能够准确定年的树轮校正部分仅为过去12 410年,目前尚无法提供更长时间尺度的树轮校正曲线。在对木构建筑进行定年时受到古木样本量不足的限制等。因此,为了更好地发挥树轮长年表的应用潜力,应不断发掘与延长现有树轮宽度长年表,同时建立长年表的C、O同位素序列,以期为长年表的应用不断做出贡献。  相似文献   

辽宁营口虎皮峪地区古元古代岩浆事件及地质意义   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

任云伟  王惠初  康健丽  初航  田辉 《地质学报》2017,91(11):2456-2472

辽宁营口虎皮峪地区存在3期古元古代侵入岩浆活动:早期虎皮峪辽吉花岗岩成岩时代为2119±16Ma,富硅、富碱、低铝、低钙及负Eu异常显示其具有类似A型花岗岩的地球化学特征,非常低Sr高Yb的特点指示其形成压力很低,与减薄的地壳有关;第二期后松树沟奥长花岗岩成岩时代为1892±16Ma,富硅、富钠、高铝,Na2O/K2O1.35及无Eu异常或正Eu异常显示其具有埃达克质岩石的特征,中—高Sr低Yb的特点指示其形成压力较高、深度较大,与碰撞后加厚地壳底侵玄武岩的部分熔融有关;晚期南台子石英二长岩成岩时代为1850±11Ma,富碱(Na2O+K2O=11.32%~11.93%),里特曼指数δ=4.78~7.20,属碱性岩,低Sr低Yb的特点指示其形成压力中等,深度大概40~50km,是造山作用完成后板内伸展背景下的产物。上述3期岩浆事件对整个辽吉古元古代活动带的构造演化具有重要指示意义:早期辽吉花岗岩可能形成于辽吉古元古代活动带早期弧后伸展阶段;后松树沟奥长花岗岩则代表古元古代晚期碰撞后地壳加厚阶段的产物;南台子石英二长岩属后造山花岗岩,标志着辽东地区克拉通化的完成,开始进入后造山伸展演化阶段。  相似文献   

中国格点化日降水极值统计模型及阈值的选取     

张昕怡  方国华闻昕叶健  郭玉雪 《气候变化研究进展》2017,13(4):346-355

采用年最大值法（AM）及超阈值峰量法（POT）分别构建基于0.5°×0.5°网格的全国地面日降水极值序列,建立基于广义极值分布（GEV）和广义帕累托分布（GPD）的降水极值统计模型,通过K-S检验评估模型拟合效果,研究全国日降水极值的统计规律及其空间分布特征,提出适用于不同地区极端日降水的极值分布模型与阈值选取标准,结果表明：(1)POT序列比AM序列更符合降水极值序列的要求;(2)为便于比较并提高模型拟合效果,POT序列的阈值由百分位数法确定效果较好;(3)阈值方案优选结果在空间分布上与中国干湿区域的划分有很好的相关性,在湿润地区宜将第90～94百分位数作为阈值,在半湿润和半干旱地区宜将第94～97百分位数作为阈值,在干旱地区则使用第97～99百分位数较为合适。  相似文献   

Cold events of Holocene indicated by primary elements distribution of the high-resolution sand dunes in the Salawusu River Valley     

NIU Dongfeng  LI Baosheng  DU Shuhuan  WEN Xiaohao  QIU Shifan  OU Xianjiao  YANG Yi 《地理学报》2008,18(1):26-36

The components of the primary elements in the dune sands for the MGS1 subsec-tion of the Milanggouwan section in the Salawusu River valley, compared with those of mod-ern dune sands, show that they were caused by East Asian winter monsoon in the Mu Us desert during Holocene. The examined ages for the 11 layers of dune sands, based on the average sedimentary rate, are: 0 to 960, 1350–2240, 2470 to 3530, 4000 to 4180, 4290 to 4350, 4380 to 4760, 5040 to 5920, 6570 to 8270, 9020 to 9700, 9880 to 10160 and 10580 to 11080 a BP, respectively. The climatic events indicated by these dune sands are consistent with those records in the Huguangyan volcanic lake, Zoige peat bog, Hulu cave and Dunde ice core, particularly with the climatic fluctuations of the North Atlantic since 11 000 a BP. Among them, patterns from B0 to B8 correspond to the peak values of 0MD, 2D, 4D, 6D+8D+10D, 12D, 14D, 16D, 18D and 20D respectively. It might be caused by the North Atlantic ice age induced by the heat circulation, which strengthened the polar high pressure and Siberian-Mongolian high pressure and further led to the dominance of the winter mon-soon over China’s desert area.  相似文献